ハーバート・Ａ・サイモン (Herbert A. Simon), 1916-2001

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　ハーバート・Ａ・サイモンが、ミクロ経済学に革命じみたものを起こしたと主張する人は多い。その革命とは、組織の中の不確実性下における「意思決定」という概念だ。サイモンによればこれは、主流ミクロ経済学で想定される「合理的人間」とはかけ離れたものだ。こういう批判を述べたのはもちろん、サイモンが始めてというわけではないが、でも知名度はサイモンが圧倒的に高い——そしておかげで1978年には ノーベル祈念賞をもらっている。

　サイモンが経済学に手を染めたのは、 コウルズ委員会 でのことだった。だからその最初の論文いくつかは、同委員会の色が濃い。特に重要なのは、非負正方行列の「ホーキンス・サイモン条件」を明らかにした1949年論文だ。

　サイモンはその後、産業組織の研究をはじめ、あれこれ見つけた中で特に注目されたのは、企業の内部組織と、企業の外的な事業上の意思決定が、新古典派理論にいう「合理的」意思決定にはちっともあてはまらない、ということだった。1950年代にかれは怒涛のように本や論文を発表し、そこでは意思決定の問題にかなり専念している——そして「限定合理性」に基づく行動理論を考案した。サイモンによれば、エージェントたちは将来について不確実性に直面し現在情報を得ようとすると費用に直面する。つまりこの二つの要因が、エージェントによる完全合理的な意思決定の度合いを制約してしまうのだ。したがってサイモンによれば、エージェントたちには「限定合理性」しかなく、意思決定は「最大化」によるのではなく、「こんなもん化」("satisficing" 訳注：satisfy とsufficeのかばん語)、つまり「こんなもんか」というがんばり水準を設定し、それが達成されればそこそこの成果ということで満足し、達成できなければ当初の期待水準を下げるか意思決定を変えるかすることによるのだ、という。こうした「限定」され不確実な現実世界では、こうした「経験則」がエージェントたちの達成できる最大限なのだ。

　サイモンは、研究のほとんどを、実際の企業における意思決定の無数の調査で裏付けている。この中から「最大化」エージェントとしてではなく「こんなもん化」エージェントとしての、企業の「新」理論が産業組織論に根付き始めた。一般に、サイモンの限定合理性理論は、いわゆる 「新制度学派」経済学の重要な一部となっている。

ハーバート・Ａ・サイモンの主要著作

• "Effects of Increased Productivity Upon the Ratio of Urban to Rural Population", 1947, Econometrica.
• Administrative Behavior, 1947.
• "Some Conditions of Macroeconomic Stability", with D. Hawkins, 1949, Econometrica.
• "A Formal Theory of the Employment Relationship", 1951, Econometrica.
• "Effects of Technological Change in a Linear Model", 1951, in Koopmans, editor, Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation.
• "A Comparison of Organisation Theories", 1952, RES.
• "On the Application of Servomechanism Theory in the Study of Production Control", 1952, Econometrica.
• "A Formal Theory of Interaction in Social Groups", 1952, American Sociological Review.
• "The Logic of Causal Relations", 1952, J of Philosophy
• "Some Strategic Considerations in the Construction of Social Science Models", 1954, in Lazarsfeld, editor, Mathematical Thinking in Social Sciences.
• "The Control of Inventories and Production Rates: A survey", with C.C. Holt, 1954, Journal of Operations Research Society.
• "Spurious Correlation: A Causal Interpretation", 1954, JASA
• "The Linear Decision Theory for Production and Employment Scheduling", with F. Modigliani and C.C. Holt, 1955, Management Science.
• "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice", 1955, QJE.
• "Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment", 1956, Psychological Review.
• Models of Man, 1956. - summary
• "A Comparison of Game Theory and Learning Theory", 1956, Psychometrika.
• "Observation of a Business Decision" with R.M. Cyert and D.B.Trow, 1956, J of Business.
• "The Compensation of Executives", 1957, Sociometry.
• "The Role of Expectations in an Adaptive or Behavioristic Model", 1958, in Bowman, editor, Expectations, Uncertainty and Business Behavior.
• Organizations, with J.G. March, 1958.
• "Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behaioral Science", 1959, AER.
• Planning Production, Inventories and Work Force, with C.C. Holt, F. Modigliani and J. Muth, 1960.
• "Simulation of Individual and Group Behavior", with G. Clarkson, 1960, AER.
• The New Science of Management Decision, 1960.
• "Aggregation of Variables in Dynamic Systems", with A. Ando, 1963, RES.
• "The Architecture of Complexity", 1962, Proceedings of American Philosophical Association.
• "New Developments in the Theory of the Firm", 1962, AER.
• "Economics and Psychology", 1963, in Koch, editor, Psychology.
• "Rationality", 1964, in gould and Kolb, editors, Dictionary of Social Sciences.
• "Decision-Making as an Economic Resource", 1965, in Seltzer, editor, New Horizons of Economic Progress.
• The Shape of Automation of Men and Management, 1965.
• "The Impact of the New Information-Processing Technology", 1966, Economy.
• "Programs as Factors of Production", 1967, Proceedings of Industrial Relations Research Association
• The Sciences of the Artificial, 1969. - quotes
• "Information Storage as a Problem in Organizational Design", 1970, in Goldberg, editor, Behavioral Approaches to Modern Management.
• "Theories of Bounded Rationality", 1972, in Radner and Radner, editors, Decision and Organisation.
• "Technology and Environment", 1973, Management Science.
• "From Substantive to Procedural Rationality", 1976, in Latsis, editor, Method and Appraisal in Economics.
• Models of Discovery, 1977.
• "Rationality as a Process and ad as Product of Thought", 1978, AER.
• "How to Decide What to Do", 1978, Bell JE.
• Models of Thought, 1979.
• "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations", 1979, AER.
• Models of Bounded Rationality, 2 volumes, 1982.
• Reason in Human Affairs, 1983.
• "Decision Making and Problem Solving", 1986
• "Whether Software Engineering Needs to be Artificially Intelligent", 1986 IEEE Trans. on Software Engineering - summary
• "Organizations and Markets", 1991, JEP.
• "The Game of Chess" with J. Schaeffer, 1992
• "Scientific Discovery as Problem Solving", in Egidi and Marris, editors, Economics, Bounded Rationality and the Cognitive Revolution.
• "Literary Criticism: A Cognitive Approach", 1995 Stanford Humanities Review
• An Empirically Based Microeconomics, 1997
• "How Managers Express Their Creativity" ?, ?

ハーバート・Ａ・サイモンに関するリソース

• HET ページ: 企業の理論における最大化論争
• Herbert Simon's homepage at Carnegie-Mellon (Graduate School of Industrial Administration).
• Herbert Simon page at Carnegie-Mellon (Computer Science Dept.)
• Herbert Simon's homepage at Carnegie-Mellon (Psychology Dept.)
• Herbert Simon's homepage at Carnegie-Mellon (Philosophy Dept.)
• Herbert Simon's homepage at Carnegie-Mellon (Human-Computer Interaction Institute.)
• Autobiography of Simon at Nobel site.
• Press release of Nobel award (1978).
• Herbert Simon's Gaus Lecture 2000 (video)
• "In Memorium: Nobel Laureate Herbert A. Simon Dies at Age 84", Carnegie-Mellon
• "Herbert Simon: Thinking Machines: Interview", 1994, Omni Mag
• "CMU's Simon reflects on how computers will continue to shape the world", 2000, PG News
• "Bridging the Gap: Where Cognitive Science Meets Literary Criticism", Stanford Humanities Review
• Herbert Simon on How Humans Solve Problems (need shockwave) at Wonders of the Mind
• "Herbert Simon Recalls Berkeley and the Birth of Administrative Behavior" at IGS, Berkeley
• "What We Know About Learning", H.A. Simon speech at Pittsburgh
• Citation from 1988 John von Neumann Theory Prize from INFORMS
• Citation on induction into NAS
• Simon Page at Brittanica.com
• Simon Page at Britannica Guide to the Nobel Prizes
• Simon Page at Nobel Prize Internet Archive
• Simon page at CSO, Paris
• Simon at Bartleby
• Herbert Simon page at Pittsburgh
• Herbert Simon page at Carnegie-Mellon
• "ASIS Conjures Information Future", 1998, Library Journal
• "Herbert Simon and Chunking" by David Wiles
• Herbert Simon's Theories of Intelligence
• "Herbert Simon on Resource Dependency Theory" by Keith Rollag
• "Herbert Alexander Simon" by Jean Zhao
• Simon Page at Laura Forgette
• Simon page at Philosophy of Mind
• Simon bibliography
• Simon page at Santa Fe Institute
• Herbert Simon Page (Portuguese)
• Simon bio
• Thinking about Herbert Simon

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