George L.S. Shackle, 1903-1992
Although born in Cambridge, Shackle obtained his Ph.D. from the L.S.E. in 1937, at the height of the early Robbins years. He was a professor of economics at the University of
Liverpool for most of his life.
A pioneering Post Keynesian, he was among the first
economists to insist on the importance of "real" uncertainty and time for
economic theory. This was an outcome of his early work in investment and business cycle
theory (for which see his now famous 1938 dissertation, Expectations, Investment and
Income).
His work on uncertainty focused on moving away from
probability- based resultions for uncertain situations and moving towards more complex
modes of behavior which include "potential surprise", "focus-outcome"
of competing choices, much of it linked to uncertainty-induced demand failures. Much of
his theory was set out in the breakthrough work, Expectation in Economics (1949).
His reflections on the concept of "time" in economics and how that is related
to uncertainty and decision-making was a life-long concern of Shackle. His work Time in
Economics (1958), Decision, Order and Time in Human Affairs (1961) and A
Scheme of Economic Theory (1965) provide exemplary results of this.
Two of his works on doctrinal economic history have become classics: his Years of
High Theory detailing the economic debates surrounding the Keynesian Revolution in
Britain are invaluable as is his Epistemtics and Economics, an incisive critical
evaluation of various economic theories.
Major works of G.L.S. Shackle
- Expectations, Investment and Income, 1938.
- "The Multiplier in Closed and Open Systems", 1939, Oxford EP.
- "Myrdal's Analysis of Monetary Equilibrium", 1945, Oxford
EP.
- "Interest Rates and the Pace of Investment", 1946, EJ.
- "The Deflative or Inflative Tendency of Government Receipts and
Disbursements", 1947, Oxford EP.
- "Probability and Uncertainty", 1949, Metroeconomica.
- "Non-Additive Measure of Uncertainty", 1949, RES.
- Expectation in Economics, 1949.
- "The Nature of Interest Rates", 1949, Oxford EP.
- "Three Versions of the f-Surface: Some notes for a comparison", 1950, RES.
- "The Nature and Role of Profit", 1951, Metroeconomica.
- "Twenty Years On: a survey of the theory of the multiplier", 1951, EJ.
- "On the Meaning and Measure of Uncertainty", 1952-3, two papers, Metroeconomica.
- "The Logic of Surprise", 1953, Economica.
- "A Chart of Economic Theory", 1953, Metroeconomica.
- Uncertainty in Economics and Other Reflections, 1955.
- "Expectation and Liquidity", 1958, in Bowman, editor, Uncertainty and
Business Decision.
- Time in Economics, 1958.
- Decision, Order and Time in Human Affairs, 1961.
- A Scheme of Economic Theory, 1965.
- The Years of High Theory: Invention and tradition in economic thought, 1926-1939.,
1967.
- "On the Nature of Profit", 1967, Woolwich Economic Papers.
- Expectations, Enterprise and Profit, 1970.
- Epistemics and Economics, 1972.
- "Marginalism: The harvest", 1972, HOPE.
- Keynesian Kaleidics, 1974.
- "New Tracks for Economic Theory, 1926-1939", 1977, in Weintraub, editor, Modern
Economic Thought.
- Imagination and the Nature of Choice, 1979.
- "Means and Meaning in Economic Theory", 1982, Scottish JE.
- "A Student's Pilgrimmage", 1983, BNLQR.
- "The Bounds of Unknowledge", 1983, in Wiseman, editor, Beyond Positive
Economics.
- "Levels of Simplicity in Keynes's Theory of Money and Employment", 1983, South
African JE.
- "The Origination of Choice", 1986, in Kirzner, editor, Subjectivism,
Intelligibility and Economic Understanding.
- Business, Time and Thought, 1988.
- "A Student's Pilgrimmage" 1989, in Kregel, editor, Recollections of Eminent
Economists.
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